:Product: 0830RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Aug 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 242 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Aug 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
30/0154Z from Region 2860 (S29W36). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
chance for M-class flares on day one (31 Aug) and likely to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on day two (01 Sep) and expected to
be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for
an M-class flare on day three (02 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 438 km/s at 30/0000Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 29/2110Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
29/2127Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 4481 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (31 Aug), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (01 Sep) and unsettled to major storm levels on
day three (02 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep
Class M    30/20/10
Class X    05/01/01
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Aug 091
Predicted   31 Aug-02 Sep 090/090/090
90 Day Mean        30 Aug 079

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Aug  009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Aug  011/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep  007/008-016/018-023/030

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/40/35
Minor Storm           05/25/30
Major-severe storm    01/05/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    30/65/65