:Product: 0902RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Sep 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (03 Sep) and expected to
be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and
three (04 Sep, 05 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 383 km/s at 02/2028Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
02/1127Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
02/1037Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 7837 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (03 Sep, 05
Sep) and quiet levels on day two (04 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
Class M    05/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Sep 086
Predicted   03 Sep-05 Sep 085/082/080
90 Day Mean        02 Sep 080

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Sep  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep  008/008-006/005-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/25
Minor Storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    25/20/35