:Product: 0904RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Sep 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 247 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Sep 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Sep,
06 Sep, 07 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 447 km/s at 04/0817Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
04/0200Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
03/2140Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 966 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (05 Sep, 06 Sep)
and quiet levels on day three (07 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Sep 087
Predicted   05 Sep-07 Sep 086/084/082
90 Day Mean        04 Sep 080

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Sep  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Sep  006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep  008/010-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/10
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    35/25/20