:Product: 0906RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Sep 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Sep 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 Sep,
08 Sep, 09 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 331 km/s at 06/0431Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 06/1335Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
06/1247Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3283 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (07 Sep, 08 Sep, 09
Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Sep 100
Predicted   07 Sep-09 Sep 100/100/100
90 Day Mean        06 Sep 080

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Sep  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Sep  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20