:Product: 0908RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Sep 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 251 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Sep 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
08/1730Z from Region 2866 (S18E07). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09
Sep, 10 Sep, 11 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 440 km/s at 08/1028Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 08/0850Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
08/0930Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 277 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (09 Sep) and quiet levels
on days two and three (10 Sep, 11 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Sep 100
Predicted   09 Sep-11 Sep 100/100/100
90 Day Mean        08 Sep 081

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Sep  010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Sep  014/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Sep-11 Sep  007/008-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/20/20