:Product: 0909RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Sep 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 252 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Sep 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
09/0831Z from Region 2866 (S18W06). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (10
Sep, 11 Sep, 12 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 436 km/s at 09/0808Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 240 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (10 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (11 Sep, 12 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    05/05/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Sep 100
Predicted   10 Sep-12 Sep 100/100/098
90 Day Mean        09 Sep 081

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Sep  014/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Sep  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Sep-12 Sep  006/005-007/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/25/25