:Product: 0912RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Sep 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 255 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Sep 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (13 Sep, 14 Sep)
and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (15 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 405 km/s at 12/2059Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at
11/2103Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
12/0834Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 158 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (13 Sep, 14 Sep, 15
Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Sep 088
Predicted   13 Sep-15 Sep 086/082/082
90 Day Mean        12 Sep 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Sep  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Sep  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Sep-15 Sep  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20