:Product: 0914RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Sep 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
14/0649Z from Region 2868 (S22W90). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (15 Sep, 16
Sep) and expected to be very low on day three (17 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 496 km/s at 13/2142Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 14/1821Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
14/1124Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 332 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (15 Sep, 16 Sep) and quiet to
active levels on day three (17 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Sep 078
Predicted   15 Sep-17 Sep 078/075/075
90 Day Mean        14 Sep 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep  007/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep  006/005-006/005-011/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/40
Minor Storm           01/01/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           25/20/35
Major-severe storm    20/20/50