:Product: 0915RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Sep 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (16 Sep, 17 Sep, 18 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 465 km/s at 14/2355Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 456 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (16 Sep) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (17 Sep, 18 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Sep 075
Predicted   16 Sep-18 Sep 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        15 Sep 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Sep  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep  006/005-012/015-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/40/45
Minor Storm           01/20/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           20/35/25
Major-severe storm    20/50/65