:Product: 0916RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Sep 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Sep 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (17 Sep, 18 Sep, 19 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 379 km/s at 16/1556Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
16/1031Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
16/1249Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 468 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (17 Sep, 18 Sep) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (19 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Sep 073
Predicted   17 Sep-19 Sep 073/073/075
90 Day Mean        16 Sep 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Sep  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Sep  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Sep-19 Sep  012/015-013/015-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/45/30
Minor Storm           20/20/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           35/25/30
Major-severe storm    50/65/40