:Product: 0919RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Sep 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 262 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Sep 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
19/0115Z from Region 2871 (S28E61). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Sep,
21 Sep, 22 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 413 km/s at 18/2215Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
19/1146Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
18/2233Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 154 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (20 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (21 Sep, 22 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Sep 075
Predicted   20 Sep-22 Sep 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        19 Sep 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Sep  014/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Sep  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep  006/005-007/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/20
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    20/25/25