:Product: 0920RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Sep 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 263 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Sep 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Sep,
22 Sep, 23 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 327 km/s at 20/0346Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 124 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (21 Sep, 22 Sep)
and quiet to active levels on day three (23 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Sep-23 Sep
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Sep 079
Predicted   21 Sep-23 Sep 075/075/077
90 Day Mean        20 Sep 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Sep  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Sep  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Sep-23 Sep  007/008-008/008-008/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Sep-23 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/30
Minor Storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    25/25/40