:Product: 0924RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Sep 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 267 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
24/0701Z from Region 2871 (S28E01). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Sep,
26 Sep, 27 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 511 km/s at 24/0830Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 23/2309Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
24/0635Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 309 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (25 Sep), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (26 Sep) and unsettled to major storm levels on
day three (27 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Sep 088
Predicted   25 Sep-27 Sep 088/086/082
90 Day Mean        24 Sep 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep  010/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Sep  007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep  009/010-011/018-020/028

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/35/30
Minor Storm           10/35/40
Major-severe storm    01/10/20
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/05/05
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    35/70/75