:Product: 0925RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Sep 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Sep 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
25/1917Z from Region 2871 (S28W13). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Sep,
27 Sep, 28 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 574 km/s at 25/0443Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 24/2332Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
25/0055Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 236 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (26 Sep), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (27 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (28 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Sep-28 Sep
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Sep 088
Predicted   26 Sep-28 Sep 088/086/086
90 Day Mean        25 Sep 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Sep  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Sep  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep  011/018-020/028-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Sep-28 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/20
Minor Storm           35/40/05
Major-severe storm    10/20/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/15
Minor Storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    70/75/25