:Product: 0926RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Sep 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 269 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Sep 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
26/1124Z from Region 2871 (S28W27). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (27 Sep, 28 Sep, 29 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 501 km/s at 25/2327Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 288 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (27 Sep) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (28 Sep, 29 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Sep 086
Predicted   27 Sep-29 Sep 086/086/084
90 Day Mean        26 Sep 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Sep  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Sep  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Sep-29 Sep  019/028-014/015-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor Storm           40/15/10
Major-severe storm    20/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    75/45/40