:Product: 0927RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Sep 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 270 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Sep 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (28 Sep) and expected to
be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and
three (29 Sep, 30 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 404 km/s at 27/2059Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 27/1902Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
27/0145Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 696 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (28 Sep), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (29 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (30 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Sep 085
Predicted   28 Sep-30 Sep 086/084/080
90 Day Mean        27 Sep 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Sep  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Sep  013/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep  023/030-013/015-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/45/15
Minor Storm           40/30/05
Major-severe storm    15/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/20
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    75/70/20