:Product: 0929RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Sep 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
29/0218Z from Region 2880 (N29E43). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Sep, 01 Oct,
02 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 499 km/s at 28/2147Z.  Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 449 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 Sep), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (01 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (02 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Sep 102
Predicted   30 Sep-02 Oct 100/105/110
90 Day Mean        29 Sep 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep  009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Sep  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct  011/012-018/024-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/45/30
Minor Storm           10/30/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/05/15
Minor Storm           30/20/30
Major-severe storm    45/70/45