:Product: 1002RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Oct 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on day one (03 Oct) and expected to be very low with a chance for
a C-class flares on days two and three (04 Oct, 05 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 501 km/s at 01/2143Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 01/2139Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
02/0902Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 140 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (03 Oct) and quiet levels
on days two and three (04 Oct, 05 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
Class M    10/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Oct 087
Predicted   03 Oct-05 Oct 087/085/085
90 Day Mean        02 Oct 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct  013/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Oct  007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct  008/008-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/20/20