:Product: 1003RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Oct 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
03/0722Z from Region 2877 (S21W93). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Oct,
05 Oct, 06 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 442 km/s at 03/0335Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
03/2052Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
03/2020Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 142 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (04 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (05 Oct, 06 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Oct 086
Predicted   04 Oct-06 Oct 088/088/088
90 Day Mean        03 Oct 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct  006/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Oct  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct  006/005-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    20/25/25