:Product: 1005RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Oct 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (06 Oct) and expected to
be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and
three (07 Oct, 08 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 332 km/s at 04/2203Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 05/1830Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
05/1324Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 248 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (06 Oct, 08
Oct) and quiet levels on day two (07 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Oct 082
Predicted   06 Oct-08 Oct 084/084/084
90 Day Mean        05 Oct 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Oct  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct  007/008-006/005-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/20
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/20
Minor Storm           30/20/30
Major-severe storm    25/20/25