:Product: 1006RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Oct 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (07
Oct, 08 Oct, 09 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 340 km/s at 06/0622Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 06/1625Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
06/1450Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 185 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (07 Oct,
08 Oct, 09 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Oct 085
Predicted   07 Oct-09 Oct 082/082/082
90 Day Mean        06 Oct 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Oct  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct  008/008-008/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    20/25/25