:Product: 1007RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Oct 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
07/0246Z from Region 2882 (N17E28). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (08
Oct, 09 Oct, 10 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 335 km/s at 07/0502Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at
07/0137Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
07/1056Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 118 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (08 Oct,
09 Oct, 10 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Oct 086
Predicted   08 Oct-10 Oct 086/086/084
90 Day Mean        07 Oct 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct  006/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Oct  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct  008/008-008/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    25/25/20