:Product: 1008RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Oct 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
08/1108Z from Region 2882 (N20E13). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Oct,
10 Oct, 11 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 311 km/s at 07/2112Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 136 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (09 Oct, 10 Oct)
and quiet to active levels on day three (11 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Oct 092
Predicted   09 Oct-11 Oct 090/090/090
90 Day Mean        08 Oct 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Oct  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct  008/008-007/008-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/30
Minor Storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    25/20/40