:Product: 1010RSGA.txt :Issued: 2021 Oct 10 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2021 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 09/2257Z from Region 2882 (N17W01). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Oct, 12 Oct, 13 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 345 km/s at 10/2004Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 10/1901Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 10/1911Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 155 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (11 Oct), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (12 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (13 Oct). III. Event probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 10 Oct 085 Predicted 11 Oct-13 Oct 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 10 Oct 082 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Oct 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct 016/025-017/020-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/35/15 Minor Storm 30/20/05 Major-severe storm 10/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 05/10/20 Minor Storm 20/25/25 Major-severe storm 70/60/20