:Product: 1011RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Oct 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
10/2302Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (12 Oct, 13 Oct, 14 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 416 km/s at 11/0405Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 11/0102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
11/0124Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 473 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (12 Oct), quiet to
active levels on day two (13 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (14
Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Oct 089
Predicted   12 Oct-14 Oct 088/086/084
90 Day Mean        11 Oct 083

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct  009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct  016/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct  022/030-014/016-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/15
Minor Storm           40/10/01
Major-severe storm    20/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/20
Major-severe storm    75/40/20