:Product: 1012RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Oct 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (13 Oct, 14 Oct, 15 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 521 km/s at 12/0703Z. Total IMF
reached 17 nT at 12/0553Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-16 nT at 12/0158Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 322 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 Oct), quiet levels on day
two (14 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (15 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Oct 084
Predicted   13 Oct-15 Oct 084/082/082
90 Day Mean        12 Oct 083

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct  015/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Oct  032/051
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct  013/015-005/005-006/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/20
Minor Storm           10/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           30/20/25
Major-severe storm    40/20/25