:Product: 1013RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Oct 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
the largest event of the period was a C1 event observed at 13/1833Z from
Region 2882 (N17W55). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on
the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Oct,
15 Oct, 16 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 480 km/s at 12/2211Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 12/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
12/2251Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 193 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (14 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (15 Oct, 16 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
Class M    05/05/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     05/05/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Oct 084
Predicted   14 Oct-16 Oct 084/082/080
90 Day Mean        13 Oct 083

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct  032/048
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct  005/005-006/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/25/25