:Product: 1014RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Oct 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
14/0134Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Oct,
16 Oct, 17 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 414 km/s at 13/2308Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
14/1424Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
14/1558Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 284 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (15 Oct, 16 Oct)
and quiet levels on day three (17 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Oct 083
Predicted   15 Oct-17 Oct 082/080/078
90 Day Mean        14 Oct 083

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct  006/008-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    25/25/20