:Product: 1015RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Oct 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (16 Oct) and
expected to be very low on days two and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 386 km/s at 15/0526Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
14/2233Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
14/2249Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 430 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (16 Oct), quiet levels on
day two (17 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (18 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Oct 084
Predicted   16 Oct-18 Oct 082/080/080
90 Day Mean        15 Oct 083

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Oct  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct  008/008-006/005-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/30
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/30
Major-severe storm    25/20/35