:Product: 1016RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Oct 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct, 19 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 422 km/s at 16/0932Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 16/0140Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
16/0027Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 671 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (17 Oct) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (18 Oct, 19 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Oct 078
Predicted   17 Oct-19 Oct 078/078/078
90 Day Mean        16 Oct 083

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct  006/005-009/012-012/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/30/30
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    20/35/35