:Product: 1017RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Oct 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on day one (18 Oct) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for
a C-class flare on days two and three (19 Oct, 20 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 419 km/s at 17/0111Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 17/0111Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
17/1038Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 251 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (18 Oct, 19 Oct) and
quiet levels on day three (20 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Oct 077
Predicted   18 Oct-20 Oct 078/080/080
90 Day Mean        17 Oct 083

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct  003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Oct  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct  009/012-012/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    35/35/30