:Product: 1018RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Oct 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Oct 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (19 Oct, 20 Oct, 21 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 385 km/s at 18/1507Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 18/0428Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
17/2117Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 432 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (19 Oct, 21 Oct)
and quiet levels on day two (20 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Oct 076
Predicted   19 Oct-21 Oct 076/076/076
90 Day Mean        18 Oct 083

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Oct   006/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Oct  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct  012/012-007/008-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/30
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    35/30/35