:Product: 1019RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Oct 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (20 Oct, 21 Oct, 22 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 424 km/s at 19/1302Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 18/2144Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
19/1558Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 198 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Oct), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (21 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (22 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Oct 076
Predicted   20 Oct-22 Oct 076/076/078
90 Day Mean        19 Oct 083

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct   009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Oct  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct  010/012-009/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    35/30/30