:Product: 1021RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Oct 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Oct 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (22
Oct, 23 Oct, 24 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 561 km/s at 21/0105Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at
20/2139Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
20/2316Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 144 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (22 Oct) and quiet levels
on days two and three (23 Oct, 24 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Oct 082
Predicted   22 Oct-24 Oct 082/083/084
90 Day Mean        21 Oct 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Oct  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Oct  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct  008/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/20/20