:Product: 1023RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Oct 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (24 Oct, 25 Oct, 26 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 474 km/s at 23/0042Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 140 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (24 Oct, 25 Oct, 26
Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Oct 087
Predicted   24 Oct-26 Oct 090/090/092
90 Day Mean        23 Oct 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/20