:Product: 1025RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Oct 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 298 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Oct 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (26 Oct, 27 Oct, 28 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 379 km/s at 24/2124Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
25/1536Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
25/1341Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 347 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (26 Oct,
27 Oct, 28 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Oct 101
Predicted   26 Oct-28 Oct 100/100/102
90 Day Mean        25 Oct 083

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Oct  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Oct  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct  007/005-008/008-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/25
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    25/25/30