:Product: 1026RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Oct 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 299 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Oct 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
26/0247Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (27 Oct) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an
M-class flare on days two and three (28 Oct, 29 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 374 km/s at 26/0508Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
25/2333Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
26/0054Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 152 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (27 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (28 Oct, 29 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct
Class M    25/15/15
Class X    10/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Oct 109
Predicted   27 Oct-29 Oct 108/110/110
90 Day Mean        26 Oct 083

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Oct  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Oct  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct  005/005-009/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    15/25/25