:Product: 1027RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Oct 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
27/0608Z from Region 2887 (S26E04). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (28 Oct,
29 Oct, 30 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 417 km/s at 27/0528Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
26/2136Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
27/0116Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 138 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (28 Oct), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (29 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (30 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Oct 111
Predicted   28 Oct-30 Oct 111/112/110
90 Day Mean        27 Oct 084

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Oct  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct  006/005-006/008-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/30
Minor Storm           01/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    15/25/40