:Product: 1029RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Oct 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Oct 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
29/0242Z from Region 2891 (N17E41). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Oct, 31
Oct, 01 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 324 km/s at 29/2012Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
29/2021Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
29/2012Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 28 pfu at 29/0250Z. Protons greater than 100 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5 pfu at 28/2115Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 242 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to severe storm levels on day one (30 Oct), unsettled to
severe storm levels on day two (31 Oct) and quiet to active levels on
day three (01 Nov). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one
(30 Oct) and have a chance of crossing threshold on days two and three
(31 Oct, 01 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    30/30/30
Proton     99/30/30
PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Oct 108
Predicted   30 Oct-01 Nov 108/106/106
90 Day Mean        29 Oct 084

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Oct  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Oct  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov  023/045-028/044-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/30
Minor Storm           35/35/10
Major-severe storm    35/35/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/15
Minor Storm           15/15/30
Major-severe storm    85/85/40