:Product: 1030RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Oct 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
30/0315Z from Region 2891 (N16E29). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (31 Oct, 01 Nov,
02 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 378 km/s at 30/1951Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at
30/1905Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
30/2053Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 20 pfu at 29/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 133 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to severe storm levels on day one (31 Oct), quiet to
active levels on day two (01 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (02
Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Oct 107
Predicted   31 Oct-02 Nov 106/106/104
90 Day Mean        30 Oct 085

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Oct  011/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov  028/044-011/012-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/10
Minor Storm           35/10/01
Major-severe storm    35/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/15/15
Minor Storm           15/30/20
Major-severe storm    85/40/15