:Product: 1031RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Oct 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
31/0706Z from Region 2891 (N16E15). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Nov, 02 Nov,
03 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 465 km/s at 31/1905Z. Total IMF
reached 13 nT at 31/1103Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 31/1136Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 11 pfu at 30/2105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 133 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 Nov), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (02 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (03 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Oct 103
Predicted   01 Nov-03 Nov 103/102/100
90 Day Mean        31 Oct 085

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct  008/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Oct  024/042
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov  013/020-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/10
Minor Storm           25/05/01
Major-severe storm    10/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor Storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    60/25/10