:Product: 1101RSGA.txt :Issued: 2021 Nov 02 1605 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Nov 2021 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M1 event observed at 01/0145Z from Region 2887 (S27W64). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Nov, 03 Nov, 04 Nov). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 462 km/s at 31/2206Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 01/1954Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 01/2049Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5 pfu at 01/0935Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 285 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (02 Nov, 03 Nov) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (04 Nov). III. Event probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov Class M 30/30/30 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 15/15/15 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 01 Nov 98 Predicted 02 Nov-04 Nov 98/98/98 90 Day Mean 01 Nov 085 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 01 Nov 008/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Nov 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov 012/010-005/007-030/035 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/15/45 Minor Storm 10/01/35 Major-severe storm 01/01/05 B. High Latitudes Active 10/20/05 Minor Storm 20/20/50 Major-severe storm 20/25/75