:Product: 1102RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Nov 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 306 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Nov 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
02/0301Z from Region 2891 (N16W13). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Nov, 04 Nov,
05 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 645 km/s at 02/1531Z. Total IMF reached 15
nT at 01/2116Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
01/2342Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4 pfu at 01/2130Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 289 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (03 Nov), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (04 Nov) and unsettled to active levels on
day three (05 Nov). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one and two (03 Nov, 04 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov
Class M    30/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     15/15/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Nov 097
Predicted   03 Nov-05 Nov 097/097/095
90 Day Mean        02 Nov 086

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Nov  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Nov  014/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Nov-05 Nov  011/014-021/030-017/022

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/45/35
Minor Storm           35/35/25
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/10
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    70/75/55