:Product: 1103RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Nov 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 307 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Nov 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on day one (04 Nov) and expected to be very low with a chance for
a C-class flares on days two and three (05 Nov, 06 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 773 km/s at 03/2059Z. Total IMF reached 24
nT at 03/2038Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at
03/2033Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 14 pfu at 03/2055Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 856 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (04 Nov), unsettled
to active levels on day two (05 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day
three (06 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov
Class M    10/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Nov 089
Predicted   04 Nov-06 Nov 090/090/085
90 Day Mean        03 Nov 086

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Nov  012/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Nov  010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov  024/035-017/022-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/40
Minor Storm           45/25/20
Major-severe storm    10/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/10
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    75/55/55