:Product: 1105RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Nov 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
05/1530Z from Region 2891 (N16W51). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Nov,
07 Nov, 08 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 627 km/s at 05/1142Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 04/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
05/1313Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1817 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (06 Nov, 07 Nov)
and quiet levels on day three (08 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Nov 093
Predicted   06 Nov-08 Nov 090/090/085
90 Day Mean        05 Nov 086

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov  042/065
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov  010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov  010/012-008/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/10
Minor Storm           15/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    40/25/10