:Product: 1106RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Nov 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
05/2157Z from Region 2894 (S27E66). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Nov,
08 Nov, 09 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 634 km/s at 06/0132Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 06/0006Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
06/1606Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1633 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (07 Nov, 08 Nov)
and quiet levels on day three (09 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Nov 082
Predicted   07 Nov-09 Nov 085/085/082
90 Day Mean        06 Nov 086

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Nov  014/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov  008/008-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    25/25/10