:Product: 1107RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Nov 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Nov,
09 Nov, 10 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 581 km/s at 06/2112Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 07/0740Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
07/1031Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2058 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Nov) and quiet levels
on days two and three (09 Nov, 10 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Nov 088
Predicted   08 Nov-10 Nov 085/082/082
90 Day Mean        07 Nov 086

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov  013/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Nov  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov  008/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/10/10