:Product: 1108RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Nov 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
08/0751Z from Region 2895 (N26E50). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Nov,
10 Nov, 11 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 490 km/s at 07/2109Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
08/1843Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
08/1944Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3319 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (09 Nov, 10 Nov, 11
Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Nov 088
Predicted   09 Nov-11 Nov 090/090/092
90 Day Mean        08 Nov 087

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Nov  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10