:Product: 1109RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Nov 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
09/1702Z from Region 2891 (N16, L=211). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Nov,
11 Nov, 12 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 399 km/s at 08/2102Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 09/2040Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
09/1834Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2 pfu at 09/2030Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2487 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (10 Nov, 11 Nov, 12
Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Nov 092
Predicted   10 Nov-12 Nov 092/092/092
90 Day Mean        09 Nov 087

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Nov  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10