:Product: 1110RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Nov 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Nov,
12 Nov, 13 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 469 km/s at 10/1553Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 09/2201Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
09/2157Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2 pfu at 09/2125Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1711 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (11 Nov, 12 Nov, 13
Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Nov 088
Predicted   11 Nov-13 Nov 088/088/086
90 Day Mean        10 Nov 087

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Nov  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov  006/005-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/25